The year 2023 presented a mixed bag for the Central European polymer market, though outcomes were more favorable than anticipated. The period saw a stabilization of energy costs, a general decrease in inflation rates across Europe, and minimal economic regression. Nevertheless, the threat of a recession loomed, leaving a shadow of uncertainty over the market.
As we inch towards recovery, the economic climate shows signs of improvement. With inflation rates on the decline, it is anticipated that the Eurozone and its neighbors will soon see interest rate reductions. Yet, geopolitical tensions persist, not just in Ukraine, but now in the Middle East as well, heightening the risks to transportation and supply chains.
The focus for 2024 centers on whether European industrial output and polymer consumption can rebound. Historically, Europe's polymer sector has been heavily reliant on exports. In 2021, Europe manufactured 57 million tons of polymer but consumed only 50 million tons. Today, exporting European polymers has become challenging due to high energy and raw material costs, especially when compared to North America, where chemical production costs are significantly lower. Moreover, the European industry experienced a near 6% contraction in 2023.
The coming year is expected to witness a surplus in supply, cautious purchasing behavior, and downward pressure on prices. Companies will likely maintain lower polymer inventories to enhance flexibility and mitigate risks, a strategy reinforced by the decrease in contract signings by polymer producers at the end of 2023. The year 2024 is predicted to be characterized by market volatility and shifts in consumer purchasing patterns.
Unlike the pronounced fluctuations seen in 2021, the volatility in 2024 is expected to be less severe, with no anticipation of drastic monthly price surges. However, disruptions such as closures of major passages like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal could significantly impact oil and raw material prices. The expected trend for polymers involves short-term price fluctuations within a modest range, influenced by supply and demand dynamics. When importation halts and European production decreases, manufacturers may seize the opportunity to increase prices. Nevertheless, any rise in prices is likely to be moderated by weak demand and counterbalanced by an influx of imports and a boost in European production, leading to a cycle of price adjustments.
Initial price movements are likely in the early months, with expectations of a price hike phase followed by a period of lower prices. Purchasing trends may evolve, with decisions being made mid-month as market conditions and pricing become clearer. Despite a challenging start to the year, there's potential for price increases and a demand uptick as the year progresses.
